What’s Next for SPY? Trade Setups & Key Dates to Watch in August

The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is still in a strong uptrend, sitting at $632.78, just a few dollars below its recent high of $639.85. The market has been steady, but it's starting to slow down a little. The RSI (a momentum indicator) is cooling off, and implied volatility (IV) is very low right now — which means traders aren’t expecting big price swings. But with important news coming up, that could change quickly.

Looking at the options market, there’s strong positioning (open interest) around the $625 and $630 levels, which could act as support. One conservative bullish trade would be a 625/620 put credit spread for September. This trade makes money if SPY stays above $625. For those looking to catch an upside breakout, a 630/635 call debit spread could work well — it's low risk and benefits if SPY climbs higher in the coming weeks.

On a personal note, I sold a naked Put on IWM at the $216 strike last week. I’m aware this is a higher-risk trade because it requires more buying power and has downside exposure, but I’m comfortable taking that risk based on IWM’s current support and trend. If IWM stays above $216, I keep the full premium. If it dips below, I’m ready to own the shares at that level.

Key dates to watch:

• 📅 Aug 13 – CPI inflation report (can impact rate cut expectations)

• 📅 Aug 21 – FOMC meeting minutes

• 📅 Sep 17 – FOMC rate decision (possibility of a rate cut)

Right now, the market still looks bullish, but with low volatility and big events ahead, it’s smart to use defined-risk strategies or be fully aware of your exposure like with a naked put. Stay flexible — this could be a key month.